Tuesday, 23 July 2013

My Magnificent Octopus (I love science, part 1)



Science!  I’ve been using that a lot recently.  Science!  With the exclamation mark.  I think it’s a substitute for ‘you moron’?  Science, you moron.  Ok, but answering that question simply raises a new one; why the inflective?  I think it comes from my curiously continuing surprise, at the lack of thinking, awareness, and knowledge of those whom I share my world with.  Knowledge and the ability to think are the two most important things a person can have.  It could be argued that love is the most important thing.  The Beatles, and Richard Feynman, both thought love is all you need, and frankly that is good enough for me.  But the reason I discount it from qualities I’m judging here is because you can’t measure love.  It can’t be gained, or learned, not in a formal setting anyway, and you can’t choose to have more love for something arbitrarily.  It seems beyond human control, even if it is the most controlling force in humans.  A fascinating subject but not the one I will cover.

Well, not here.

Here I intend to outline why I am such a science junky, why I apply the scientific method to all my decision making, and to an extent, why I am confused that everyone doesn’t do that.  I’ve tried to keep it down, but unfortunately it’s already become a trilogy.  During the various drafts for this I kept slipping in to a Richard Dawkins-esk rage at the irrationality of religion, but there won’t be any of that here; I will split that in to a separate piece so that explanatory and the argumentative don’t get in each other’s way.

So come on then, what’s the big deal with this science and its way of viewing the world then?  Well, the world is huge, and amazing, it’s astounding and confusing and overwhelming.  Science gives understanding; a path that can be found through the complexity.  Rationality, once accepted, is powerful, mostly as it provides an excellent way of filtering the vast amount of half-baked nonsense that we are bombarded by.  A scientific mind-set allows the easy distinction between the factual and the ridiculous.  You can see how religion kept creeping in to this?  I think that the most useful element that a rational viewpoint gives, is doubt.

That might sound very negative and pessimistic, but let me be clear, not doubt of all things and people and an absence of hope.   I refer to doubt of something until there is reason not to doubt it.  I doubt that Omega3 does anything to my brain activity, I doubt that anti-oxidants affect aging, I doubt that homeopathy does jack shit.  I doubt that neutrinos can travel faster than light, I doubt climate change is a natural cycle, and I doubt that one doctor publishing results on eleven children can overturn decades of research and show a link between vaccination and autism.  I doubt.  I’m a doubter.

I continue to doubt until information arrives that supports the claim that was originally made, though in all six of my example this will never happen, as the information refuting them is legion.

Oh look a filter; easy peasy.  Just disregard anything that doesn’t come with supporting information, except how do you know if the supporting information can be trusted?  After all each of my examples is backed up by some sort of information?  Lots of magazine articles have been published about how anti-oxidants mop up free radicals in the body.  All sorts of people claim homeopathy has worked for them, and the san Grasso lab in Italy is one of the most advanced and respected particle physics institutes in the world, and they made the superluminal neutrino claim.

The solution, which may seem to place us at the head of a slippery slope, is to filter the information, which is not difficult.  Information need only be considred in how it relates to exisitng information.

I’m now going to construct a visual metaphor, on paper, which is a bold claim but here goes.  Many people think of science as a great solid impenetrable mass, a stodgy great ball of facts and figures and rules and laws, and unless you understand all of it you can’t make any sense of things.

I would suggest that we imagine an art installation, a highly contemporary one; a multitude of fine wires criss-crossing through a large room; sometimes meeting; often weaving round each other; some meeting points have a few wires; others meet in great collections.  From each of these meeting points, these nodes, we suspend little lights.  If we turn the lights in the gallery off then it will look rather impressive I’m sure.

The points were the wires meet are theories, I’m ignoring the technical difference between theories and hypotheses here; each meeting point is a scientific idea that can be tested and evaluated.

The wires are the interconnections between these ideas as theories do not exist in isolation; they relate to each other, and support each other, and not always in ways that are obvious.  The wires are not static either, they move and shift.  New connections are formed, other connections disappear.  Sometimes a single wire is replaced by many, spreading and twisting through the mesh.

The lights are information.  Each showing the evidence that supports the idea it is hanging from.  Some nodes would be dim with only a light of two; others would be great luminous orbs.

The whole structure would be constantly moving and changing, a vibrant dynamic structure.   The wires move, nodes disappear and the lights move to new nodes.  Theories can come and go as new experiments and insights replaces them with improved ideas or shows them to be totally wrong, but the little lights always just move as information is never wrong.  An observation, once made, with care, is a fact and can never be in error.  A new measurement may be more accurate but that doesn’t invalidate the previous measure, it simple documents the progress of precision.

So here we are with this great nest of ideas, sitting in a tangle of wires, and punctuated by a myriad of tiny lights.  It shifts and pulses and changes shape and size as we watch it.  It is this ever changing and growing interconnectedness that I love.  This is what draws me in.  That ideas which seem to bear no relation can be directly linked in ways we could not have predicted. That all knowledge is in some way connected, sometimes by twenty lane mega highways and sometimes by twisting back roads through hamlets of half-forgotten truths.

The hole in the ozone layer was not discovered, it was predicted, by chemists investigating how the properties of a molecule changes when one of the atoms in the molecule absorbs energy and then has to release it.  Chlorofluorocarbon in the stratosphere absorbs energy from ultra violet light, releasing chlorine, which starts a reaction that consumes ozone.  Their work was confirmed by atmospheric scientists, not ones studying Earth, but studying Venus, which is rich in chlorine.  Only after that did environmental scientists make detailed measurements of the actual effect.  Different scientists, from different disciplines, able to join their skills together on a single problem.

Oceanographers taking core samples of the seabed, to study the geological and biological history of the Earth, let physicists do astronomy by studying the ratios of isotopic iron in the ancient seabed, and show us that a supernova exploded within ninety light years of the Earth five million years ago.  Due to the movement of the stars a telescope cannot provide evidence for that.

The way heat is persuaded to flow quicker out of a microchip is copied from microscopic features found in biology.  A better understanding of the weather in the suns atmosphere has allowed us to control the two hundred million degree plasma in fusion reactors by deliberately inducing instabilities that mimic a solar prominence.  The list is functionally endless.  And so is my fascination.

Whenever I am told something new I try and insert it in to my own version of this tangled web.  Does this new information fit; does it contradict something I already know?  We return to doubt, or scepticism as it’s also known.  I don’t take information at face value, I take it at its real value, which may be zero until I’ve looked in to it a bit more.

This fluid and moving tangle of filaments explains the whole universe, and it corrects itself, and it absorbs, grows, and changes, as our knowledge changes.  We can measure the age of the universe, explain the complexity of life, and predict the interaction of the fundamental particles.  We can infer matter and energy undetectable to our current technology, and envisage ourselves on the surface of worlds and moons far from our Earth, and design novel forms of life from scratch.

That we can do all this is incredible and invigorating and awe inspiring.  That we can understand the universe by the simple act of trying to understand the universe never ceases to amaze.

It has been suggested that the non-scientific view point is the more pleasing; that a religious or artistic eye can see beauty that science destroys.  Science is reductionist and turns splendour in to a flow chart.  I would argue against that (there is a flow chart in part two, but it’s a beautiful one) and suggest science adds to the simple beauty of nature.  The scent of a rose can stir my senses and the beauty of its form is all too visible.  But knowing that these concentric rings of petals were formed by the iterative application of a small set of genes, which were themselves formed by the iterative application of natural selection, adds an additional layer of beauty; that the aesthetic which is clear to my eye was self-forming by natural laws which I can understand.

As Douglas Adams so beautifully put it (didn’t he always?) I’d take the awe of understanding over the awe of ignorance any day.

In part 2, the scientific method.  The most powerful process we have ever found.

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